Leicester 2–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Birmingham

4/6/2024

Championship · Round 41King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Leicester41%

×Draw29%

Birmingham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Leicester

1.21

Birmingham

0.98

Leicester creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

0.81

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Leicester

1.28

Birmingham

0.81

allows per match

Leicester

1.15

Birmingham

1.13

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.46scores more

Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

70%

Leicester or Birmingham

71%

Draw or Birmingham

59%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

18%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

70%

Leicester 2+ goals

34%

Leicester 3+ goals

12%

Birmingham 1+ goals

62%

Birmingham 2+ goals

26%

Birmingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.28 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Leicester defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leicester scores more

41%

level

29%

Birmingham scores more

30%

Leicester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff