Leicester 0–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

Gabriel Martinelli 46'

2/25/2023

Premier League · Round 25King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leicester28%

×Draw26%

Arsenal47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.50

Leicester

1.09

Arsenal

1.50

Arsenal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

1.23

creates per match

1.71

1.30

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Leicester

1.23

Arsenal

1.71

allows per match

Leicester

1.30

Arsenal

0.96

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.10scores more

Arsenal+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

53%

Leicester or Arsenal

74%

Draw or Arsenal

72%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

11%

Arsenal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

66%

Leicester 2+ goals

30%

Leicester 3+ goals

10%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

37%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.23 + Arsenal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Arsenal attack 1.71 + Leicester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leicester scores more

28%

level

26%

Arsenal scores more

47%

Arsenal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Gabriel Magalhães

Arsenal · D

7.5

Match Events

28'

Leandro TrossardGoal cancelled

39'

Gabriel Martinelli

46'

Gabriel Martinelli↳ L. Trossard

62'

Y. Tielemans← Tetê

62'

J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ

70'

E. Nketiah← L. Trossard

77'

P. Daka← D. Praet

77'

B. Soumaré← W. Ndidi

84'

T. Partey← M. Ødegaard

85'

Ricardo Pereira← T. Castagne

90+3'

T. Tomiyasu← O. Zinchenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterArsenal

Overview

34%Possession66%

1Total Shots10

0.02Expected Goals (xG)0.66

0Corners8

14Fouls9

Shots

1Total Shots10

0On Target2

1Off Target3

0Blocked5

0Inside Box5

1Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

315Total Passes613

217Accurate Passes505

69%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4