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Leicester Road vs Sutton Coldfield Town — League #55 2026

Leicester Road
Leicester Road
FT
2 – 1
Sutton Coldfield Town
Sutton Coldfield Town
1/25/2025League #55League #55 · Northern Midlands - 29The Greene King Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Leicester Road38%
×Draw27%
Sutton Coldfield Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester Road
1.27
Sutton Coldfield Town
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leicester Road
1.36
Sutton Coldfield Town
1.53

allows per match

Leicester Road
0.91
Sutton Coldfield Town
1.18

finishing

Leicester Road+0.00on par
Sutton Coldfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester Road ↓

Sutton Coldfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leicester Road or draw
65%
Leicester Road or Sutton Coldfield Town
73%
Draw or Sutton Coldfield Town
62%

Winning margin

Leicester Road wins by 2+
17%
Sutton Coldfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leicester Road 1+ goals
72%
Leicester Road 2+ goals
36%
Leicester Road 3+ goals
14%
Sutton Coldfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Sutton Coldfield Town 2+ goals
34%
Sutton Coldfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leicester Road (draw refunded)
52%
Sutton Coldfield Town (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester Road at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Sutton Coldfield Town away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester Road attack 1.36 + Sutton Coldfield Town defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sutton Coldfield Town attack 1.53 + Leicester Road defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester Road scores more
38%
level
27%
Sutton Coldfield Town scores more
35%

Leicester Road at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester Road will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leicester Road vs Sutton Coldfield Town

Leicester Road beat Sutton Coldfield Town 2-1 in League #55 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at The Greene King Stadium in Hinckley, Leicestershire.