Leicester Road 1–2 Shepshed Dynamo: Result & Stats

Leicester Road

FT

1 – 2

Shepshed Dynamo

3/8/2025

League #55 · Northern Midlands - 26The Greene King Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leicester Road27%

×Draw25%

Shepshed Dynamo48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leicester RoadExpected goals in this matchShepshed Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.54

Leicester Road

1.09

Shepshed Dynamo

1.54

Shepshed Dynamo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.36

creates per match

2.17

0.91

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Leicester Road

1.36

Shepshed Dynamo

2.17

allows per match

Leicester Road

0.91

Shepshed Dynamo

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester Road+0.00on par

Shepshed Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester Road ↓

Shepshed Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leicester Road or draw

52%

Leicester Road or Shepshed Dynamo

75%

Draw or Shepshed Dynamo

73%

Winning margin

Leicester Road wins by 2+

10%

Shepshed Dynamo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Leicester Road 1+ goals

66%

Leicester Road 2+ goals

30%

Leicester Road 3+ goals

10%

Shepshed Dynamo 1+ goals

79%

Shepshed Dynamo 2+ goals

45%

Shepshed Dynamo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Leicester Road (draw refunded)

36%

Shepshed Dynamo (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester Road at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Shepshed Dynamo away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester Road attack 1.36 + Shepshed Dynamo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shepshed Dynamo attack 2.17 + Leicester Road defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leicester Road scores more

27%

level

25%

Shepshed Dynamo scores more

48%

Shepshed Dynamo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shepshed Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff