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Leicester Road vs Boldmere St. Michaels — League #55 2026

Leicester Road
Leicester Road
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boldmere St. Michaels
Boldmere St. Michaels
3/29/2025League #55League #55 · Northern Midlands - 37The Greene King Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leicester Road54%
×Draw24%
Boldmere St. Michaels22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester Road
1.68
Boldmere St. Michaels
0.96

Leicester Road creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Leicester Road
1.36
Boldmere St. Michaels
1.00

allows per match

Leicester Road
0.91
Boldmere St. Michaels
2.00

finishing

Leicester Road+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester Road ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leicester Road or draw
78%
Leicester Road or Boldmere St. Michaels
76%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels
46%

Winning margin

Leicester Road wins by 2+
30%
Boldmere St. Michaels wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leicester Road 1+ goals
81%
Leicester Road 2+ goals
50%
Leicester Road 3+ goals
24%
Boldmere St. Michaels 1+ goals
62%
Boldmere St. Michaels 2+ goals
25%
Boldmere St. Michaels 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leicester Road (draw refunded)
72%
Boldmere St. Michaels (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester Road at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester Road attack 1.36 + Boldmere St. Michaels defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Boldmere St. Michaels attack 1.00 + Leicester Road defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Leicester Road scores more
54%
level
24%
Boldmere St. Michaels scores more
22%

Leicester Road at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Leicester Road will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leicester Road vs Boldmere St. Michaels

Leicester Road beat Boldmere St. Michaels 2-0 in League #55 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at The Greene King Stadium in Hinckley, Leicestershire.