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Leicester City FC W vs Stoke City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leicester City FC W
Leicester City FC W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Stoke City W
Stoke City W
1/15/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundMeadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leicester City FC W70%
×Draw16%
Stoke City W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester City FC W
2.83
Stoke City W
1.21

Leicester City FC W creates 134% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leicester City FC W
3.00
Stoke City W
1.17

allows per match

Leicester City FC W
1.25
Stoke City W
2.67

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par
Stoke City W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Stoke City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw
86%
Leicester City FC W or Stoke City W
84%
Draw or Stoke City W
30%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+
50%
Stoke City W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals
94%
Leicester City FC W 2+ goals
77%
Leicester City FC W 3+ goals
53%
Stoke City W 1+ goals
70%
Stoke City W 2+ goals
34%
Stoke City W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)
83%
Stoke City W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Stoke City W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 3.00 + Stoke City W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Stoke City W attack 1.17 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more
70%
level
16%
Stoke City W scores more
14%

Leicester City FC W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Leicester City FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leicester City FC W vs Stoke City W

Leicester City FC W beat Stoke City W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Meadow Lane in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.