Leicester City FC W 0–4 Chelsea W: Result & Stats

Leicester City FC W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea W

3/3/2024

FA WSL · Round 15King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Leicester City FC W12%

×Draw18%

Chelsea W70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leicester City FC WExpected goals in this matchChelsea W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.31

Leicester City FC W

0.85

Chelsea W

2.31

Chelsea W creates 172% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 83 away

1.00

creates per match

2.71

1.91

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Leicester City FC W

1.00

Chelsea W

2.71

allows per match

Leicester City FC W

1.91

Chelsea W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Chelsea W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw

30%

Leicester City FC W or Chelsea W

82%

Draw or Chelsea W

88%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+

4%

Chelsea W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals

57%

Leicester City FC W 2+ goals

21%

Leicester City FC W 3+ goals

5%

Chelsea W 1+ goals

90%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

67%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)

15%

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 55 matches

Chelsea W away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 1.00 + Chelsea W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Chelsea W attack 2.71 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more

12%

level

18%

Chelsea W scores more

70%

Chelsea W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff