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Leicester City FC W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

Leicester City FC W
Leicester City FC W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
2/18/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 14King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Leicester City FC W51%
×Draw21%
Bristol City W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester City FC W
2.05
Bristol City W
1.46

Leicester City FC W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 40 away

creates per match

Leicester City FC W
1.00
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

Leicester City FC W
1.91
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw
73%
Leicester City FC W or Bristol City W
79%
Draw or Bristol City W
49%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+
30%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals
87%
Leicester City FC W 2+ goals
61%
Leicester City FC W 3+ goals
33%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
77%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
43%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)
65%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 55 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 1.00 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more
51%
level
21%
Bristol City W scores more
27%

Leicester City FC W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leicester City FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leicester City FC W vs Bristol City W

Leicester City FC W beat Bristol City W 5-2 in FA WSL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.