Leicester City FC W 2–0 Birmingham City W

Leicester City FC W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham City W

12/19/2021

FA WSL · Round 10King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Leicester City FC W38%

×Draw25%

Birmingham City W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leicester City FC WExpected goals in this matchBirmingham City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.44

Leicester City FC W

1.46

Birmingham City W

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.91

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Leicester City FC W

1.00

Birmingham City W

0.97

allows per match

Leicester City FC W

1.91

Birmingham City W

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Birmingham City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw

63%

Leicester City FC W or Birmingham City W

75%

Draw or Birmingham City W

62%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+

18%

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals

77%

Leicester City FC W 2+ goals

43%

Leicester City FC W 3+ goals

18%

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

42%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)

51%

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 55 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 1.00 + Birmingham City W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Birmingham City W attack 0.97 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more

38%

level

25%

Birmingham City W scores more

37%

Leicester City FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester City FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff