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Leicester City FC W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Leicester City FC W
Leicester City FC W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
2/16/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 14King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Leicester City FC W34%
×Draw24%
Aston Villa W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester City FC W
1.41
Aston Villa W
1.59

Aston Villa W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 66 away

creates per match

Leicester City FC W
1.00
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Leicester City FC W
1.91
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw
58%
Leicester City FC W or Aston Villa W
76%
Draw or Aston Villa W
66%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+
15%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals
76%
Leicester City FC W 2+ goals
41%
Leicester City FC W 3+ goals
17%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
80%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
47%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)
45%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 55 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 1.00 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more
34%
level
24%
Aston Villa W scores more
42%

Aston Villa W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Leicester City FC W 3–0 Aston Villa W

Leicester City FC W beat Aston Villa W 3-0 in FA WSL on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.