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LehPa vs MP II — Suomen Cup 2018

LehPa
LehPa
FT
1 – 3
MP II
MP II
3/28/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundHope Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LehPa26%
×Draw23%
MP II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LehPa
1.25
MP II
1.83

MP II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

LehPa
1.00
MP II
2.00

allows per match

LehPa
1.67
MP II
1.50

finishing

LehPa+0.00on par
MP II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LehPa ↓

MP II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

LehPa or draw
49%
LehPa or MP II
77%
Draw or MP II
74%

Winning margin

LehPa wins by 2+
11%
MP II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

LehPa 1+ goals
71%
LehPa 2+ goals
36%
LehPa 3+ goals
13%
MP II 1+ goals
84%
MP II 2+ goals
54%
MP II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

LehPa (draw refunded)
34%
MP II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LehPa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

MP II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LehPa attack 1.00 + MP II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

MP II attack 2.00 + LehPa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LehPa scores more
26%
level
23%
MP II scores more
51%

MP II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "MP II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LehPa 1 – 3 MP II

MP II beat LehPa 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Hope Areena TN in Joensuu.