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LehPa vs Kooteepee — Suomen Cup 2018

LehPa
LehPa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kooteepee
Kooteepee
4/25/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LehPa11%
×Draw15%
Kooteepee74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LehPa
1.06
Kooteepee
2.87

Kooteepee creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

LehPa
1.00
Kooteepee
4.07

allows per match

LehPa
1.67
Kooteepee
1.13

finishing

LehPa+0.00on par
Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LehPa ↓

Kooteepee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

LehPa or draw
26%
LehPa or Kooteepee
85%
Draw or Kooteepee
89%

Winning margin

LehPa wins by 2+
4%
Kooteepee wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

LehPa 1+ goals
65%
LehPa 2+ goals
29%
LehPa 3+ goals
9%
Kooteepee 1+ goals
94%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
77%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

LehPa (draw refunded)
13%
Kooteepee (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LehPa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 4.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LehPa attack 1.00 + Kooteepee defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kooteepee attack 4.07 + LehPa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

LehPa scores more
11%
level
15%
Kooteepee scores more
74%

Kooteepee at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: LehPa 0–2 Kooteepee

Kooteepee beat LehPa 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.