Dynamo Kyiv II 3–1 Desna: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Desna

11/13/2015

Persha Liga · Round 17NTB Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv II43%

×Draw29%

Desna27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Kyiv IIExpected goals in this matchDesna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Dynamo Kyiv II

1.21

Desna

0.90

Dynamo Kyiv II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.22

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv II

1.22

Desna

0.80

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv II

1.00

Desna

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv II+0.00on par

Desna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv II ↓

Desna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv II or draw

73%

Dynamo Kyiv II or Desna

71%

Draw or Desna

57%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv II wins by 2+

19%

Desna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv II 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Kyiv II 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo Kyiv II 3+ goals

12%

Desna 1+ goals

59%

Desna 2+ goals

23%

Desna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv II (draw refunded)

61%

Desna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Desna away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv II attack 1.22 + Desna defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Desna attack 0.80 + Dynamo Kyiv II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Kyiv II scores more

43%

level

29%

Desna scores more

27%

Dynamo Kyiv II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff