Legon Cities 2–1 WAFA: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

WAFA

A. Nassiru 30'

H. Kwofie 23'

M. Ayidem 85'

3/20/2022

Premier League · Round 21Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Legon Cities47%

×Draw29%

WAFA25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchWAFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.86

Legon Cities

1.30

WAFA

0.86

Legon Cities creates 51% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 44 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

0.88

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.21

WAFA

0.84

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

WAFA

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

WAFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

75%

Legon Cities or WAFA

71%

Draw or WAFA

53%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

22%

WAFA wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

73%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

37%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

14%

WAFA 1+ goals

58%

WAFA 2+ goals

21%

WAFA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

65%

WAFA (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.21 + WAFA defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

WAFA attack 0.84 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legon Cities scores more

47%

level

29%

WAFA scores more

25%

Legon Cities at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

H. Kwofie

30'

A. Nassiru

37'

H. Owari

46'

F. Boateng← F. Boateng

46'

M. Zuo← M. Zuo

46'

G. Segla← G. Segla

62'

M. Otou

67'

C. A. Rahmane Diarra← C. A. Rahmane Diarra

85'

M. Ayidem

90+1'

90+2'

J. Attuquaye

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff