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Legon Cities vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nations
Nations
3/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Legon Cities45%
×Draw32%
Nations23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.11
Nations
0.71

Legon Cities creates 56% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Nations
0.98

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
77%
Legon Cities or Nations
68%
Draw or Nations
55%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
19%
Nations wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
67%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
30%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
10%
Nations 1+ goals
51%
Nations 2+ goals
16%
Nations 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
66%
Nations (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nations attack 0.53 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legon Cities scores more
45%
level
32%
Nations scores more
23%

Legon Cities at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legon Cities 1–0 Nations

Legon Cities beat Nations 1-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.