Legon Cities 2–1 Mighty Royals: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mighty Royals

1/10/2026

Division One League · Round 15WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Legon Cities37%

×Draw23%

Mighty Royals40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchMighty Royals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.68

Legon Cities

1.60

Mighty Royals

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.07

2.29

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.07

Mighty Royals

1.07

allows per match

Legon Cities

2.29

Mighty Royals

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Mighty Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Mighty Royals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

60%

Legon Cities or Mighty Royals

77%

Draw or Mighty Royals

63%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

18%

Mighty Royals wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

80%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

47%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

22%

Mighty Royals 1+ goals

81%

Mighty Royals 2+ goals

50%

Mighty Royals 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

48%

Mighty Royals (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Mighty Royals away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.07 + Mighty Royals defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mighty Royals attack 1.07 + Legon Cities defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legon Cities scores more

37%

level

23%

Mighty Royals scores more

40%

Mighty Royals at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mighty Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff