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Legon Cities vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
9/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities44%
×Draw30%
Medeama26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.21
Medeama
0.86

Legon Cities creates 41% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
74%
Legon Cities or Medeama
70%
Draw or Medeama
56%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
19%
Medeama wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
70%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
34%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
12%
Medeama 1+ goals
58%
Medeama 2+ goals
21%
Medeama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
63%
Medeama (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Medeama attack 0.85 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Legon Cities scores more
44%
level
30%
Medeama scores more
26%

Legon Cities at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Medeama

Medeama beat Legon Cities 1-0 in Premier League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.