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Legon Cities vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karela
Karela
9/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities49%
×Draw29%
Karela22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.27
Karela
0.74

Legon Cities creates 72% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Karela
1.31

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
78%
Legon Cities or Karela
71%
Draw or Karela
51%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
23%
Karela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
72%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
36%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
14%
Karela 1+ goals
52%
Karela 2+ goals
17%
Karela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
69%
Karela (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Karela attack 0.61 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legon Cities scores more
49%
level
29%
Karela scores more
22%

Legon Cities at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legon Cities 0–2 Karela

Karela beat Legon Cities 2-0 in Premier League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.