Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legon Cities vs Home Stars — Cup 2022

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
0 – 1
Home Stars
Home Starsadvanced
11/30/2024CupCup · Round of 64University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legon Cities62%
×Draw28%
Home Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.36
Home Stars
0.36

Legon Cities creates 278% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.40
Home Stars
0.33

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.40
Home Stars
1.33

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Home Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Home Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
90%
Legon Cities or Home Stars
72%
Draw or Home Stars
38%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
32%
Home Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
74%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
39%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
16%
Home Stars 1+ goals
30%
Home Stars 2+ goals
5%
Home Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
87%
Home Stars (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Home Stars away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.40 + Home Stars defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Home Stars attack 0.33 + Legon Cities defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Legon Cities scores more
62%
level
28%
Home Stars scores more
10%

Legon Cities at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Home Stars

Home Stars beat Legon Cities 1-0 in Cup on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.