Legon Cities 0–1 Great Olympics: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

0 – 1

Great Olympics

M. Quaye 20'

11/13/2021

Premier League · Round 3Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Legon Cities48%

×Draw30%

Great Olympics22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchGreat Olympics

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.75

Legon Cities

1.25

Great Olympics

0.75

Legon Cities creates 67% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

1.23

creates per match

0.61

0.89

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.23

Great Olympics

0.61

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.89

Great Olympics

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Great Olympics →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

78%

Legon Cities or Great Olympics

70%

Draw or Great Olympics

52%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

22%

Great Olympics wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

71%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

36%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

13%

Great Olympics 1+ goals

53%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

17%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

68%

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.23 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Legon Cities defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legon Cities scores more

48%

level

30%

Great Olympics scores more

22%

Legon Cities at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Quaye

28'

J. Adjei

41'

P. Sackey

59'

A. Boateng Afriyie← A. Boateng Afriyie

59'

H. Ali← H. Ali

64'

I. Sulley← I. Sulley

65'

J. Deen Haruna

72'

N. Moro← N. Moro

79'

C. Danso← C. Danso

88'

A. Manaf Mudasiru← A. Manaf Mudasiru

90+2'

G. Nudakpa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff