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Great Olympics vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
J. Mereku 90+5'
K. Boateng 56'
12/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Great Olympics54%
×Draw29%
Legon Cities17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.32
Legon Cities
0.61

Great Olympics creates 116% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 93 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.26
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.64
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
83%
Great Olympics or Legon Cities
71%
Draw or Legon Cities
46%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
26%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
73%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
38%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
15%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
46%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
13%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
76%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.64 · 77 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.26 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Great Olympics defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Great Olympics scores more
54%
level
29%
Legon Cities scores more
17%

Great Olympics at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
S. Tenedu
26'
27'
K. Suraje
39'
J. Amoah
56'
K. Boateng
70'
J. Amoah
70'
J. Amoah
73'
80'
F. Antwi← F. Antwi
82'
83'
85'
R. Senanu← R. Senanu
90+1'
90+2'
90+5'
J. Mereku

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Great Olympics 0–2 Legon Cities

Legon Cities beat Great Olympics 2-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2023.

Goals: K. Boateng (56'), J. Mereku (90+5').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.