Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legon Cities vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
A. Aso 70'
R. Boadu 20' (pen)
3/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Legon Cities39%
×Draw32%
Asante Kotoko29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.05
Asante Kotoko
0.86

Legon Cities creates 22% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
71%
Legon Cities or Asante Kotoko
68%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
61%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
16%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
65%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
28%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
9%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
58%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
21%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
57%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Legon Cities scores more
39%
level
32%
Asante Kotoko scores more
29%

Legon Cities at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
R. BoaduPenalty
34'
51'
O. Amadu← O. Amadu
51'
A. Aso← A. Aso
59'
E. Morrison← E. Morrison
62'
64'
66'
M. Ampadu
70'
A. Aso
75'
D. Wazorzi← D. Wazorzi
77'
I. Oppong← I. Oppong
77'
S. Mukwala← S. Mukwala
77'
A. Acheapong
82'
E. Armegah← E. Armegah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legon Cities 1–1 Asante Kotoko

Legon Cities and Asante Kotoko drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 30, 2023.

Goals: R. Boadu (20' pen), A. Aso (70').

The match was played at Elwak Stadium in Accra.