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Legon Cities vs Accra Lions — Cup 2022

Legon Cities
Legon Citiesadvanced
FT
3 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
11/29/2023CupCup · Round of 64Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legon Cities40%
×Draw27%
Accra Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.36
Accra Lions
1.20

Legon Cities creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.40
Accra Lions
2.00

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.40
Accra Lions
1.33

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
67%
Legon Cities or Accra Lions
73%
Draw or Accra Lions
60%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
19%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
74%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
39%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
16%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
70%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
34%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
55%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.40 + Accra Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Accra Lions attack 2.00 + Legon Cities defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legon Cities scores more
40%
level
27%
Accra Lions scores more
33%

Legon Cities at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Legon Cities 3–0 Accra Lions

Legon Cities beat Accra Lions 3-0 in Cup on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Elwak Stadium in Accra.