Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legon Cities vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
E. Armegah 47'
K. Kordzi 35'
4/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Legon Cities53%
×Draw28%
Accra Lions20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.39
Accra Lions
0.73

Legon Cities creates 90% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 67 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.21
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
80%
Legon Cities or Accra Lions
72%
Draw or Accra Lions
47%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
26%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
75%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
40%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
16%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
52%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
17%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
73%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.21 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legon Cities scores more
53%
level
28%
Accra Lions scores more
20%

Legon Cities at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Acheampong← K. Acheampong
33'
35'
K. Kordzi
46'
W. Honu← W. Honu
47'
E. Armegah
50'
S. Mohammed← S. Mohammed
50'
D. Amponsah← D. Amponsah
62'
A. Aso← A. Aso
62'
M. Kwabena← M. Kwabena
66'
F. Kesse← F. Kesse
66'
S. Oppong← S. Oppong
79'
A. Dosu← A. Dosu
79'
R. Abassah← R. Abassah
82'
85'
86'
A. Dosu
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legon Cities vs Accra Lions

Legon Cities beat Accra Lions 2-0 in Premier League on April 26, 2023.

Goals: K. Kordzi (35'), E. Armegah (47').

The match was played at Elwak Stadium in Accra.