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Legnago Salus vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villafranca
Villafranca
B. Sambou 55'
1/29/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Mario Sandrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Legnago Salus50%
×Draw26%
Villafranca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legnago Salus
1.53
Villafranca
0.97

Legnago Salus creates 58% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Legnago Salus
1.44
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Legnago Salus
0.86
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw
76%
Legnago Salus or Villafranca
74%
Draw or Villafranca
50%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+
26%
Villafranca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals
78%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
45%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
20%
Villafranca 1+ goals
62%
Villafranca 2+ goals
25%
Villafranca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
68%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legnago Salus scores more
50%
level
26%
Villafranca scores more
24%

Legnago Salus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
B. Sambou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legnago Salus vs Villafranca

Legnago Salus beat Villafranca 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 29, 2023.

Goals: B. Sambou (55').

The match was played at Stadio Mario Sandrini in Legnago.