Legnago Salus 2–2 Delta Porto Tolle: Result & Stats

Legnago Salus

FT

2 – 2

Delta Porto Tolle

M. Giacobbe 74'

F. Antonelli 40'

M. Episcopo 30'

D. Vita 25'

2/16/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 27Stadio Mario Sandrini (Legnago)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Legnago Salus47%

×Draw27%

Delta Porto Tolle26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legnago SalusExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.99

Legnago Salus

1.41

Delta Porto Tolle

0.99

Legnago Salus creates 42% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

1.44

creates per match

1.13

0.86

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Legnago Salus

1.44

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

Legnago Salus

0.86

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw

74%

Legnago Salus or Delta Porto Tolle

73%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

53%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+

23%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals

76%

Legnago Salus 2+ goals

41%

Legnago Salus 3+ goals

17%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

63%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

26%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)

64%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legnago Salus scores more

47%

level

27%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

26%

Legnago Salus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

D. Vita

30'

M. Episcopo

40'

F. Antonelli

74'

M. Giacobbe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff