Legnago Salus 2–0 Chions: Result & Stats

Legnago Salus

FT

2 – 0

Chions

12/15/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 18Stadio Mario Sandrini (Legnago)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Legnago Salus53%

×Draw25%

Chions23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legnago SalusExpected goals in this matchChions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Legnago Salus

1.64

Chions

0.98

Legnago Salus creates 67% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 50 away

1.44

creates per match

1.10

0.86

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Legnago Salus

1.44

Chions

1.10

allows per match

Legnago Salus

0.86

Chions

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Chions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw

77%

Legnago Salus or Chions

75%

Draw or Chions

47%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+

28%

Chions wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals

81%

Legnago Salus 2+ goals

49%

Legnago Salus 3+ goals

23%

Chions 1+ goals

62%

Chions 2+ goals

26%

Chions 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)

70%

Chions (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Chions attack 1.10 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legnago Salus scores more

53%

level

25%

Chions scores more

23%

Legnago Salus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff