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Legnago Salus vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
PST
13:30
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
3/8/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 31Stadio Mario Sandrini (Legnago)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Legnago Salus45%
×Draw27%
Ambrosiana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legnago Salus
1.35
Ambrosiana
1.01

Legnago Salus creates 34% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

creates per match

Legnago Salus
1.44
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Legnago Salus
0.86
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw
72%
Legnago Salus or Ambrosiana
73%
Draw or Ambrosiana
55%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+
21%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals
74%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
39%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
15%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
64%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
27%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
61%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legnago Salus scores more
45%
level
27%
Ambrosiana scores more
28%

Legnago Salus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Legnago Salus host Ambrosiana

March 8, 2020: Legnago Salus take on Ambrosiana in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Legnago Salus host Ambrosiana at Stadio Mario Sandrini (Legnago).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.