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Ambrosiana vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
1 – 1
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
11/3/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 12Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana36%
×Draw24%
Legnago Salus40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.49
Legnago Salus
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
60%
Ambrosiana or Legnago Salus
76%
Draw or Legnago Salus
64%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
17%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
77%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
44%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
19%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
80%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
47%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
47%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
36%
level
24%
Legnago Salus scores more
40%

Legnago Salus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ambrosiana 1 – 1 Legnago Salus

Ambrosiana and Legnago Salus drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella).