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Legionovia Legionowo vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wikielec
Wikielec
5/21/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo52%
×Draw23%
Wikielec25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.86
Wikielec
1.21

Legionovia Legionowo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 86 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
75%
Legionovia Legionowo or Wikielec
77%
Draw or Wikielec
48%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
30%
Wikielec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
84%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
55%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
28%
Wikielec 1+ goals
70%
Wikielec 2+ goals
34%
Wikielec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
68%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
52%
level
23%
Wikielec scores more
25%

Legionovia Legionowo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legionovia Legionowo 2–1 Wikielec

Legionovia Legionowo beat Wikielec 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.