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Legionovia Legionowo vs Widzew Łódź — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
9/7/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo23%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
0.97
Widzew Łódź
1.59

Widzew Łódź creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Widzew Łódź
1.71

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Widzew Łódź
1.06

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
48%
Legionovia Legionowo or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
77%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
8%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
62%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
25%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
7%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
80%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
47%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
31%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Widzew Łódź attack 1.71 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
23%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
52%

Widzew Łódź at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Legionovia Legionowo 0–2 Widzew Łódź

Widzew Łódź beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-0 in II Liga - East on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.