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Legionovia Legionowo vs Stal Stalowa Wola — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
9/21/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo33%
×Draw27%
Stal Stalowa Wola40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.18
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.34

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.21

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.48

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
60%
Legionovia Legionowo or Stal Stalowa Wola
73%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
67%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
14%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
69%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
33%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
12%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
74%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
39%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
45%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
33%
level
27%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
40%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legionovia Legionowo 0 – 1 Stal Stalowa Wola

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Legionovia Legionowo 1-0 in II Liga - East on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.