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Legionovia Legionowo vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
3 – 1
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
6/10/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo41%
×Draw24%
Legia Warszawa II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.66
Legia Warszawa II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 104 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
65%
Legionovia Legionowo or Legia Warszawa II
76%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
59%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
21%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
81%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
49%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
23%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
78%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
45%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
54%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
41%
level
24%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
35%

Legionovia Legionowo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Legia Warszawa II

Legionovia Legionowo beat Legia Warszawa II 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.