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Legionovia Legionowo vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
3/7/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo35%
×Draw27%
Lech Poznań II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.22
Lech Poznań II
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Lech Poznań II
1.14

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Lech Poznań II
1.55

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
62%
Legionovia Legionowo or Lech Poznań II
73%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
65%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
15%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
70%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
34%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
12%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
73%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
37%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
47%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
35%
level
27%
Lech Poznań II scores more
38%

Lech Poznań II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Lech Poznań II

Legionovia Legionowo and Lech Poznań II drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.