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Legionovia Legionowo vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
2 – 1
Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
3/6/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo48%
×Draw23%
Jagiellonia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.83
Jagiellonia II
1.37

Legionovia Legionowo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Jagiellonia II
1.48

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Jagiellonia II
1.67

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Jagiellonia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
71%
Legionovia Legionowo or Jagiellonia II
77%
Draw or Jagiellonia II
52%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
27%
Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
84%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
54%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
28%
Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
75%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
40%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
63%
Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
48%
level
23%
Jagiellonia II scores more
29%

Legionovia Legionowo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legionovia Legionowo 2–1 Jagiellonia II

Legionovia Legionowo beat Jagiellonia II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.