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Jagiellonia II vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
3 – 4
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
11/28/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jagiellonia II40%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.69
Legionovia Legionowo
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
63%
Jagiellonia II or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
60%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
21%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
82%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
50%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
24%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
80%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
48%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
52%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
40%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
37%

Jagiellonia II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Jagiellonia II 3–4 Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Jagiellonia II 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.