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Legion vs Tartu Welco — Esiliiga A 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
8/15/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 24Kadrioru staadion (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legion48%
×Draw21%
Tartu Welco31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
2.21
Tartu Welco
1.75

Legion creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 75 away

creates per match

Legion
2.54
Tartu Welco
1.73

allows per match

Legion
1.76
Tartu Welco
1.89

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

Tartu Welco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Legion or draw
69%
Legion or Tartu Welco
79%
Draw or Tartu Welco
52%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
29%
Tartu Welco wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
89%
Legion 2+ goals
65%
Legion 3+ goals
38%
Tartu Welco 1+ goals
83%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
52%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
61%
Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.89 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 2.54 + Tartu Welco defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Tartu Welco attack 1.73 + Legion defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legion scores more
48%
level
21%
Tartu Welco scores more
31%

Legion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion vs Tartu Welco

Legion beat Tartu Welco 6-2 in Esiliiga A on August 15, 2019.

The match was played at Kadrioru staadion (Tallinn).