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Legion vs Pärnu — Esiliiga B 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
2 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
5/26/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 12Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legion49%
×Draw22%
Pärnu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
1.97
Pärnu
1.50

Legion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

Legion
1.61
Pärnu
0.89

allows per match

Legion
2.11
Pärnu
2.33

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Legion or draw
70%
Legion or Pärnu
78%
Draw or Pärnu
51%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
28%
Pärnu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
86%
Legion 2+ goals
58%
Legion 3+ goals
31%
Pärnu 1+ goals
78%
Pärnu 2+ goals
44%
Pärnu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
62%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.11 · 44 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 1.61 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Legion defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legion scores more
49%
level
22%
Pärnu scores more
30%

Legion at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Legion 2–0 Pärnu

Legion beat Pärnu 2-0 in Esiliiga B on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.