Legion Dynamo 1–1 Sochi II: Result & Stats

Legion Dynamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sochi II

5/3/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legion Dynamo44%

×Draw26%

Sochi II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchSochi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.18

Legion Dynamo

1.48

Sochi II

1.18

Legion Dynamo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

1.52

creates per match

1.25

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Sochi II

1.25

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Sochi II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Sochi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

70%

Legion Dynamo or Sochi II

74%

Draw or Sochi II

56%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

22%

Sochi II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

77%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

43%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

19%

Sochi II 1+ goals

69%

Sochi II 2+ goals

33%

Sochi II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

59%

Sochi II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

44%

level

26%

Sochi II scores more

30%

Legion Dynamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff