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Legion Dynamo vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
6/12/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Legion Dynamo40%
×Draw27%
Rubin Yalta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.28
Rubin Yalta
1.14

Legion Dynamo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 48 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
67%
Legion Dynamo or Rubin Yalta
73%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
60%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
18%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
72%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
37%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
14%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
68%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
32%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
55%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
40%
level
27%
Rubin Yalta scores more
33%

Legion Dynamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Rubin Yalta

Legion Dynamo beat Rubin Yalta 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Makhachkala.