Legion Dynamo 3–2 Rotor-2: Result & Stats

Legion Dynamo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor-2

M. Murtazaliev 82'

Y. Udunyan 80' (pen)

R. Shikhaev 27'

S. Bolotin 90+1'

D. Mikhaylov 51'

5/12/2022

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legion Dynamo60%

×Draw22%

Rotor-217%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchRotor-2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.90

Legion Dynamo

1.89

Rotor-2

0.90

Legion Dynamo creates 110% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

1.52

creates per match

0.69

1.11

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Rotor-2

0.69

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Rotor-2

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Rotor-2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Rotor-2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

83%

Legion Dynamo or Rotor-2

78%

Draw or Rotor-2

40%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

36%

Rotor-2 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

85%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

56%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

29%

Rotor-2 1+ goals

59%

Rotor-2 2+ goals

23%

Rotor-2 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

78%

Rotor-2 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Rotor-2 away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Rotor-2 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.89

Rotor-2 attack 0.69 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

60%

level

22%

Rotor-2 scores more

17%

Legion Dynamo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Saaduev

27'

R. Shikhaev

37'

S. Bolotin← N. Kuznetsov

41'

M. Smolyakov

44'

I. Musluev

46'

A. Panaev← B. Gamzatov

51'

D. Mikhaylov

54'

I. Vagabov

56'

M. Idrisov← K. Salakhetdinov

62'

T. Bitarov← S. Saaduev

62'

M. Saidov← I. Vagabov

63'

R. Shikhayev

70'

R. Naniev

76'

A. Abdurakhmanov← K. Kurbanov

78'

N. Shepet← A. Biryukov

78'

D. Ponomarchuk← D. Mikhaylov

80'

Y. UdunyanPenalty

82'

M. Murtazaliev

90'

M. Saidov

90+1'

S. Bolotin

Legion

Rotor-2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Izbulatov

46'▲A. Panaev←▼B. Gamzatov

56'▲M. Idrisov←▼K. Salakhetdinov

62'▲T. Bitarov←▼S. Saaduev

62'▲M. Saidov←▼I. Vagabov

76'▲A. Abdurakhmanov←▼K. Kurbanov

Legion Dynamo substitutes

PanaevIdrisovBitarovSaidovAbdurakhmanov

Manager: A. Zhdanov

37'▲S. Bolotin←▼N. Kuznetsov

78'▲N. Shepet←▼A. Biryukov

78'▲D. Ponomarchuk←▼D. Mikhaylov

Rotor-2 substitutes

BolotinShepetPonomarchuk