Legion Dynamo 1–0 Pobeda: Result & Stats | Cup

Legion Dynamo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobeda

8/23/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Trud Makhachkala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Legion Dynamo66%

×Draw23%

Pobeda11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchPobeda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.50

Legion Dynamo

1.67

Pobeda

0.50

Legion Dynamo creates 234% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.67

Pobeda

0.33

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

0.67

Pobeda

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Pobeda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

89%

Legion Dynamo or Pobeda

77%

Draw or Pobeda

34%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

38%

Pobeda wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

81%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

50%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

23%

Pobeda 1+ goals

39%

Pobeda 2+ goals

9%

Pobeda 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

86%

Pobeda (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.67 + Pobeda defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pobeda attack 0.33 + Legion Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

66%

level

23%

Pobeda scores more

11%

Legion Dynamo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff