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Legion Dynamo vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
5/18/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Legion Dynamo50%
×Draw24%
Mashuk-KMV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.69
Mashuk-KMV
1.15

Legion Dynamo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 57 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Mashuk-KMV
1.18

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Mashuk-KMV
1.86

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
74%
Legion Dynamo or Mashuk-KMV
76%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
50%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
27%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
82%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
50%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
24%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
68%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
32%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
66%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.18 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
50%
level
24%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
26%

Legion Dynamo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 2–0 Mashuk-KMV

Legion Dynamo beat Mashuk-KMV 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.