Legion Dynamo 0–0 Kuban Kholding: Result & Stats

Legion Dynamo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kuban Kholding

5/28/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Legion Dynamo37%

×Draw27%

Kuban Kholding36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Legion Dynamo

1.25

Kuban Kholding

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 91 away

1.52

creates per match

1.35

1.11

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Kuban Kholding

1.35

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Kuban Kholding

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

64%

Legion Dynamo or Kuban Kholding

73%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

63%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

16%

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

71%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

36%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

13%

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

71%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

35%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

51%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

37%

level

27%

Kuban Kholding scores more

36%

Legion Dynamo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff