Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuban Kholding vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
11/25/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Kuban Kholding43%
×Draw27%
Legion Dynamo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.40
Legion Dynamo
1.14

Kuban Kholding creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
69%
Kuban Kholding or Legion Dynamo
73%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
57%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
20%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
75%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
41%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
17%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
68%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
32%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
58%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
43%
level
27%
Legion Dynamo scores more
31%

Kuban Kholding at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 2–0 Legion Dynamo

Kuban Kholding beat Legion Dynamo 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.