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Legion Dynamo vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
11/7/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legion Dynamo48%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar III27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.60
Krasnodar III
1.12

Legion Dynamo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
73%
Legion Dynamo or Krasnodar III
75%
Draw or Krasnodar III
52%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
25%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
80%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
47%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
22%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
67%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
31%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
64%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
48%
level
25%
Krasnodar III scores more
27%

Legion Dynamo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 2–0 Krasnodar III

Legion Dynamo beat Krasnodar III 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.