Legion Dynamo 1–1 FC UFA: Result & Stats | Cup

Legion Dynamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC UFA

S. Saaduev 60' (pen)

A. Nikitin 90+5'

9/22/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Legion Dynamo45%

×Draw30%

FC UFA24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchFC UFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.79

Legion Dynamo

1.19

FC UFA

0.79

Legion Dynamo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

0.67

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.67

FC UFA

0.90

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

0.67

FC UFA

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

FC UFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

76%

Legion Dynamo or FC UFA

70%

Draw or FC UFA

55%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

20%

FC UFA wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

70%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

33%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

12%

FC UFA 1+ goals

55%

FC UFA 2+ goals

19%

FC UFA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

65%

FC UFA (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.67 + FC UFA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC UFA attack 0.90 + Legion Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

45%

level

30%

FC UFA scores more

24%

Legion Dynamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Kurbanov← S. Magomedaliev

46'

A. Nikitin← K. Pliev

46'

R. Fishchenko← F. Mrzljak

46'

V. Krotov← G. Agalarov

58'

A. Golubev

58'

M. Abdulkhamidov← G. Nurakhmedov

59'

A. Nikitin

59'

A. Sukhov← M. Bauer

60'

S. SaaduevPenalty

72'

D. Akhatov← A. Golubev

75'

M. Idrisov← A. Dubukhov

75'

S. Shalbuzov← A. Gadzhibekov

77'

A. Panaev

81'

M. Murtazaliev← T. Malsagov

89'

K. Kurbanov

90+5'

A. Nikitin

Legion

FC

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Izbulatov

46'▲K. Kurbanov←▼S. Magomedaliev

58'▲M. Abdulkhamidov←▼G. Nurakhmedov

75'▲M. Idrisov←▼A. Dubukhov

75'▲S. Shalbuzov←▼A. Gadzhibekov

81'▲M. Murtazaliev←▼T. Malsagov

Legion Dynamo substitutes

KurbanovAbdulkhamidovIdrisovShalbuzovMurtazalievAbdulavovKazikhanovVagabovSalakhetdinovNanievShikhaevBitarov

Manager: A. Stukalov

46'▲A. Nikitin←▼K. Pliev

46'▲R. Fishchenko←▼F. Mrzljak

46'▲V. Krotov←▼G. Agalarov

59'▲A. Sukhov←▼M. Bauer

72'▲D. Akhatov←▼A. Golubev

FC UFA substitutes

NikitinFishchenkoKrotovSukhovAkhatovKukushkin

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs FC UFA

Legion Dynamo and FC UFA drew 1-1 in Cup on September 22, 2021.

Goals: S. Saaduev (60' pen), A. Nikitin (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.

Legion Dynamo vs FC UFA — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs FC UFA