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Legion Dynamo vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Essentuki
Essentuki
8/1/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Legion Dynamo72%
×Draw17%
Essentuki11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
2.29
Essentuki
0.74

Legion Dynamo creates 209% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 44 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
89%
Legion Dynamo or Essentuki
83%
Draw or Essentuki
28%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
48%
Essentuki wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
90%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
66%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
40%
Essentuki 1+ goals
52%
Essentuki 2+ goals
17%
Essentuki 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
87%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.29

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
72%
level
17%
Essentuki scores more
11%

Legion Dynamo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legion Dynamo vs Essentuki

Legion Dynamo beat Essentuki 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.