Legion Dynamo 0–4 Chernomorets: Result & Stats

Legion Dynamo

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Chernomorets

10/11/2022

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Legion Dynamo30%

×Draw25%

Chernomorets45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legion DynamoExpected goals in this matchChernomorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.51

Legion Dynamo

1.19

Chernomorets

1.51

Chernomorets creates 27% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 46 away

1.52

creates per match

1.91

1.11

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Legion Dynamo

1.52

Chernomorets

1.91

allows per match

Legion Dynamo

1.11

Chernomorets

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Chernomorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw

55%

Legion Dynamo or Chernomorets

75%

Draw or Chernomorets

70%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

12%

Chernomorets wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

70%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

33%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

12%

Chernomorets 1+ goals

78%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

44%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

40%

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more

30%

level

25%

Chernomorets scores more

45%

Chernomorets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff