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Legion Dynamo vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Cup 2019

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8/25/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Legion Dynamo53%
×Draw24%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00

Legion Dynamo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
0.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.67

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
77%
Legion Dynamo or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
76%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
47%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
81%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
50%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
23%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
63%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.67 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Legion Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
53%
level
24%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
23%

Legion Dynamo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legion Dynamo 2 – 3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Legion Dynamo 3-2 in Cup on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Makhachkala.